The Trade I Shouldn’t Have Taken

Ten minutes after the open on Monday I told everyone in the chat that if they'd already taken a trade, they were gambling. Five minutes later I took one.

It didn't work. I closed it, sat back, and said the only honest thing I had:

"I shouldn't have taken that trade. Forgive me, Father."

This post is about that trade, the one after it that I also didn't need, and the one I actually waited for. Because the difference between them is the whole job.

What Monday looked like

No news on the calendar. We'd opened the week below Friday's low and the previous week's low, then pushed straight back up into it. There was a 400-point opening gap sitting under price, London high above us, and the 9:30 level acting like a brick wall.

In plain terms: chop. My bias, out loud on stream, was "my bias is chop."

What I'm waiting for in that environment is simple. Before I do anything, I want the first presented fair value gap on the one-minute. That's the market telling you it's ready to leave consolidation. Very often, once that first gap prints, expansion isn't far behind. Until then, price goes back and forth, and you sit.

That's what I said. That's not what I did.

The two trades I didn't need

At 9:43 (all times Eastern) we got an inversion and I took one contract toward London high. It wasn't the first presented gap. It was me being bored. I closed it for a small loss a minute and a half later.

Then around 10:14 I got a cleaner look, an inversion of the first presented fair value gap, and I went long again. That one worked: 50 points. And I still told the room I didn't need to take it.

"I didn't need to take that. Why did I just mess around? It was pointless."

A 50-point winner can still be a bad trade. If the setup wasn't the one you were waiting for, the profit just teaches you that impatience pays, and it will send you the bill later.

High resistance vs. low resistance

Here's the distinction I kept coming back to all morning.

A high-resistance run is price grinding up and down through levels. You can trade it. It's just exhausting: is it going, is it not going, is it going. Every candle is a vote on your emotions.

A low-resistance liquidity run is the opposite. Liquidity has been taken, the path to the target is clean, and price just goes. Those are the ones I want.

"Reminding yourself not to trade in this environment, over and over again. It's going to save your account."

Someone in the chat said their strategy used to be how they felt. Mine was too. The problem is my feelings changed every ten seconds, so I'd get in on a feeling, get out on a different one, and get back in on a third.

The trade I actually waited for

What I wanted was specific, and I drew it out before it happened: a retracement into 9:30, sitting on a 15-minute breaker, with the hourly and four-hour fair value gaps above as the draw.

At 10:33 we tagged the first presented fair value gap right at 9:30, and I took one micro long. Risk on that single contract was about $40. The entry was a 15-minute breaker: low, high, lower low, displacement, retracement to the breaker, looking for expansion.

Then came the part nobody posts clips of: managing it.

• I added a contract on the 10:39 close when it held.
• The 10:45 fifteen-minute candle closed with no wick. I don't like that, so I committed to taking profit on the sweep of the highs.
• At 10:52 I moved my stop to break even. We were in position to make money. It was just a matter of waiting.
• When the highs were swept, I sold one contract and let the last one run toward the hourly and four-hour gaps.
• Once price left a fresh fair value gap behind, that gap became my invalidation. Up 75 points on the runner, I wasn't letting it go back to break even. If a candle closed through that gap, I was out.

It did. I closed the last micro for $150.

For everyone who says you can't make money on one micro: you can. One contract, one setup, and the discipline to sit through the hour before it. The size comes later. The patience comes first.

Fix your eyes on what's ahead

We ended with Monday's affirmation, and it fit the morning better than I planned:

That's not about manifesting a Porsche. It's about pursuing what the Lord has actually put in front of you, and the ultimate prize is Him. Whatever's behind you, a trading loss, a blown account, a bad decision you made at 9:43 this morning, you don't have to carry it into the next setup.

I took a trade I shouldn't have. I said so, I let it go, and I waited for the right one. That's the whole lesson.

Chapters

• 13:11 Why I stopped promoting the 9:30 model
• 17:44 What we wait for: the first presented fair value gap
• 21:20 “If you’ve already taken a trade, you’re gambling”
• 25:53 The trade I shouldn’t have taken
• 45:45 High-resistance vs. low-resistance runs
• 56:26 The 50-point scalp I didn’t need
• 1:16:14 One micro long at 9:30 off the 15-minute breaker
• 1:38:07 Accumulation, manipulation, distribution inside a 15-minute candle
• 1:50:04 Setting the invalidation and closing for $150
• 1:55:40 Monday affirmation

New to this way of trading? The free 30-Day Roadmap covers fair value gaps, liquidity and the patience it takes to wait for your setup.